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Sunday, August 2, 2009

Is it Time to Get Conservative? 50 Buy Write Option Strategies for a Summer Sell Off

As previously stated on my blog, this rally could continue through August; but what if it doesn't? What is the market sells off? Well nobody knows for sure what will happen in the month to come, but getting conservative and taking profits never hurt anyone. July was an unexpected bull run, and I have to say the economy still isn't that great... I would hate to be completely long before Friday's unemployment numbers come out. So in this post I will explain why it may be a good time to get conservative, and how a simple option strategy allows you to do this. This strategy actually allows you to both protect and profit.

The Strategy:
The strategy is the buy/write option strategy, and requires the stock to be purchased and a covered call option to be sold immediately against it. The premium received will lower your cost basis (providing downside protection), and the strike price the option is written for is out of the money so it allows additional upside gains on the stock. To learn more about options check out my blog or options E-Books here.
The Reason:
The chart below from Yahoo finance has the CBOE Buy/Write Monthly index versus the S&P 500.



The BXM as explained from CBOE website:
The BXM is a passive total return index based on (1) buying an S&P 500 stock index portfolio, and (2) "writing" (or selling) the near-term S&P 500 Index (SPXSM) "covered" call option, generally on the third Friday of each month. The SPX call written will have about one month remaining to expiration, with an exercise price just above the prevailing index level (i.e., slightly out of the money). The SPX call is held until expiration and cash settled, at which time a new one-month, near-the-money call is written.
As you can see up until 2008, both correlated very well. However during market sell offs the buy write strategy protects the portfolio. The bad part about the buy/write is that during bull markets it does not return as much (see chart below since market bottom March 6, 2009).

Since the market bottom, the buy/write strategy would have returned less than being completely long. However what are the chances this market rallies another 45%? Judging by the Volatility Index (VIX), I believe this market is due for a short term correction phase. I am bullish long term, but anticipate a 5%-7% sell off in the coming months. This strategy is ideal for this type of speculation. So, I have outlined a list of the top 50 companies (by market cap) in the S&P 500 using this strategy, and will analyze which company is what I call the "best bang for the buck" or which one yields the best combination of both downside protection and potential return.

All data as of stock market close Friday July 31, 2009.

For this analysis I am taking a more conservative approach and writing the option nearest to 3% lower on the share price. The strike price can easily be adjusted for a more bullish approach (less protection and greater return).

To understand the table, I will give a detailed example of Apple (AAPL) below.

Purchase Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock, and sell the in the money August 160 strike call option. The premium received from the call option would give a downside protection of 3.86%. If the stock is assigned at options expiration on August 22, 2009 the total return from this position would be 1.78%. The current options market is factoring in a 64.5% probability that the share price of Apple will be at or above $160 by August expiration.

A more bullish approach would be to write out the Apple 165 Call option. This approach would protect to the downside 2.14%, and if the stock is assigned at expiration it would return 3.13% (in 19 calendar days). However the probability on this call option is lower, factoring in a 45.8% chance Apple will be at or above $165 a share at August expiration.

The August options expiration is 19 calendar days away, so it may be best to monitor the position and buy back the call option on weakness of the underlying stock, if the stock rallies after it is purchased back, write it back out for a higher premium etc...

Company Ticker
Strike
Return %
Protection % Probability %
Exxon Mobil Corporation NYSE:XOM
70
1.51
2.06 53.2
Microsoft Corporation NASDAQ:MSFT
23
1.70
3.91 64.4
Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. NYSE:WMT
47.5
0.34
5.11 84.2
Johnson & Johnson NYSE:JNJ
60
1.08
2.55 61.3
The Procter & Gamble Company NYSE:PG
55
1.96
2.88 56.3
International Business Machines Corp. NYSE:IBM
115
0.91
3.39 69.9
AT&T Inc. NYSE:T
25
0.61
5.30 75.7
Apple Inc. NASDAQ:AAPL
160
1.78
3.86 64.5
JPMorgan Chase & Co. NYSE:JPM
37
1.01
5.28 70.3
Google Inc. NASDAQ:GOOG
430
1.32
4.27 70.0
Chevron Corporation NYSE:CVX
65
0.26
6.69 83.9
General Electric Company NYSE:GE
13
2.24
5.22 63.1
Cisco Systems, Inc. NASDAQ:CSCO
21
1.59
6.18 72.7
Bank of America Corporation NYSE:BAC
14
1.83
7.17 70.1
Wells Fargo & Company NYSE:WFC
24
2.82
4.70 58.7
The Coca-Cola Company NYSE:KO
47.5
0.42
5.12 80.1
Oracle Corporation NASDAQ:ORCL
21
0.90
6.01 77.0
Intel Corporation NASDAQ:INTC
19
1.87
3.17 59.2
Pfizer Inc. NYSE:PFE
15
0.19
6.03 83.9
Hewlett-Packard Company NYSE:HPQ
42.5
2.42
4.27 60.2
Philip Morris International Inc. NYSE:PM
45
1.07
4.51 70.0
Verizon Communications Inc. NYSE:VZ
31
0.84
4.18 69.6
PepsiCo, Inc. NYSE:PEP
55
0.88
3.96 71.0
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. NYSE:GS
160
1.75
3.77 61.4
QUALCOMM, Inc. NASDAQ:QCOM
45
1.56
4.18 66.8
Abbott Laboratories NYSE:ABT
44
1.24
3.45 64.5
ConocoPhillips NYSE:COP
42
1.21
5.12 69.8
Schlumberger Limited NYSE:SLB
50
1.31
7.85 76.2
Merck & Co., Inc. NYSE:MRK
29
1.80
5.16 64.2
Amgen, Inc. NASDAQ:AMGN
60
2.47
6.18 67.0
Wyeth NYSE:WYE
45
0.86
4.19 73.3
McDonald's Corporation NYSE:MCD
52.5
0.40
5.05 80.1
Occidental Petroleum Corporation NYSE:OXY
70
2.40
4.28 60.4
United Parcel Service, Inc. NYSE:UPS
50
0.60
7.54 81.4
CVS Caremark Corporation NYSE:CVS
32.5
1.79
4.72 65.8
United Technologies Corporation NYSE:UTX
55
2.90
1.93 43.3
The Walt Disney Company NYSE:DIS
24
1.31
5.77 73.2
3M Company NYSE:MMM
70
1.82
2.55 55.3
Monsanto Company NYSE:MON
80
1.43
6.19 73.4
Gilead Sciences, Inc. NASDAQ:GILD
47.5
1.43
4.35 71.0
The Home Depot, Inc. NYSE:HD
25
1.70
5.32 67.5
Schering-Plough Corporation NYSE:SGP
26
1.47
3.39 63.8
Comcast Corporation NASDAQ:CMCSA
14
2.09
7.87 71.5
Bristol Myers Squibb Co. NYSE:BMY
21
1.20
4.60 68.4
Kraft Foods Inc. NYSE:KFT
27
1.27
6.00 72.6
Eli Lilly & Co. NYSE:LLY
35
2.12
1.81 46.5
Medtronic, Inc. NYSE:MDT
34
0.99
5.00 72.4
U.S. Bancorp NYSE:USB
20
2.16
4.16 61.8
Colgate-Palmolive Company NYSE:CL
70
1.05
4.42 72.5
Morgan Stanley NYSE:MS
28
2.81
4.56 60.1

As you may have noticed, the less volatile the underlying stock and greater the probability of expiring at or above the indicated strike price, the less the return percentage is. Based on this analysis of 50 stocks, the stocks which offer the "best bang for the buck" are Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO), Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), and Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA), as they are all above the average in all three categories (return %, protection %, and probability %). I personally like the Bank of America idea, and will be looking at opening up some buy/writes for the August expiration in the days to come. To better understand options in general, including this strategy, these percentage calculations, and other option strategies click here.

As the Volatility index is creeping back up, call option premiums should increase in value overall, protecting and giving an even higher return. I use this strategy to write my shares out on strength, and purchase them back on weakness (if I am profitable). For example: using this strategy has allowed me to cost average my position on Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) down to $4.88 a share. Patience is key to succeed with this strategy. If the stock gets called out, and you miss the upside, the position is still profitable and you can always do it again for the next options expiration. If the stock gets hammered and you're down on the position, this strategy will keep you in the game and allow you to cost average the shares down month after month.

All of these options expire on August 22; therefore the last trading day is Friday, August 21, 2009.

These are just examples and are not recommendations to buy or sell any security; if you're more bullish/bearish, you’ll want to adjust the strike price and expiration accordingly.

This strategy will give protection if the market sells off, as well as provide a return if the market continues to rally. If the stock is not assigned, this strategy is a great way to create additional income for your portfolio. The reason option volumes have surged in the last 5 years is because they are a great way to hedge your portfolio as well as create income off of your shares (see chart here). Keep in mind when using this strategy it is essential that broker commissions are low enough to profit from the position.

So in case the summer rally fades and turns into a summer sell off, these are just some strategies which can be used to help pad the portfolio, without spending additional money by purchasing put protection.

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