Daily Stock Market Equity and Options Trading Commentary

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Saturday, March 14, 2009

Happy PI Day and Update to Friday the 13th Post

Happy PI Day! Today is PI day (3/14) so recite as many digits of PI as you can and of course have a piece of pie!

My PI Day stock pick to watch for next week is SDS. With a massive rally in the past week we are in overbought territory on a short term basis, so if we continue to rally it may be a good opportunity to pick up some SDS for a short term trade. I will be setting my limit to buy SDS around 82 a share and set a tight stop loss about 80. I am hoping this rally continues and has legs, but unfortunately I am very convinced we will retest the lows.

As we now know we did end yesterday up, after being down as much as 1.1% mid-day, so the trend for Friday the 13th trading did continue making now 7 out of the last 11, going back to June 2003. We wont get another Friday the 13th trading day until this November, so we'll see if we can keep it up then.

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Friday, March 13, 2009

Friday the 13th... Is it Good Luck for Stocks? VERY INTERESTING!

This is my own original research! I was checking the last 10 trading days for Friday the 13th activity just because it is such a "bad luck" day and all. For the last 10 trading days that fell on Friday the 13th we need to go back to June of 2003. We have been UP 6 of the last 10 trading sessions on Friday the 13th, and for a net GAIN. Could this predict today's activity? Unlikely but it sure would be nice to finish up. So here is the data I have for the last 10 days we have traded (in terms of the S&P 500).

February 13, 2009 -8.35
June 13, 2008 +20.16
July 13, 2007 +4.80
April 13, 2007 +5.05
October 13, 2006 +3.39
January 13, 2006 +1.55
May 13, 2005 -5.31
August 13, 2004 +1.57
February 13, 2004 -6.30
June 13, 2003 -9.90

As of right now we are borderline flat on the S&P down 1.08. But if the trend continues, odds are we finish up today, making it a 4 day winning streak. Certainly odd in this market lately...

Now for the Extremely odd! The sum of the last 10 trading days on Friday the 13th for the S&P 500 is a net gain of 6.66 or as some call the devil's number... Now wouldn't it be strange if the S&P finished the day unchanged? I guess we'll find out soon enough...

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Palm Pre Release Date and Price News

It is rumored that the Palm Pre is getting released exclusively from Sprint on June 14, 2009 for sale on June 15, 2009. Nothing is concrete yet, but this is a heavy rumor. I believe the release date is soon to hit the media because of the recent pop in the stock. It seems to me that the street is predicting Palm to come out with this news about the PRE very soon. This phone is said to be Palm's savior and is said to be Apple iPhone's best competitor. I believe when Palm and Sprint release this information we could see a nice rally in PALM. I recently bought back my covered calls on Palm for a very nice gain, and I am waiting to hear this news to write them back out. The charts say if we can get PALM over $10 a share we could see it rally to $13-$15 quite easily. Today Palm and Sprint got together to give investors/consumers more information about the new Palm PRE, however they have already been criticized for not releasing the two most important pieces of information- the release date and price. I think that the release date and price info are soon to be known, as I can tell from the recent activity in the stock. Wall Street has a strange way of predicting things, and I think this may be one of them. I say Palm releases this critical information within 3 weeks (by April 3). This will be an extremely HOT phone (I will be getting one) and assuming the price is reasonable for consumers (within $200-$400), this should cause Palm's stock to go even higher. The short interest on this stock is over 50%! The potential short squeeze here is HUGE!

Palm has outperformed the NASDAQ in the last 5 trading days by about double, whereas shares of AAPL and RIMM have both underperformed the NASDAQ's performance in the last 5 trading days. Click the chart below to get a larger more detailed picture.

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Thursday, March 12, 2009

Is the Bottom in?

I think we have a good chance of going higher for a couple of weeks, but I believe we'll have to retest the lows. With the possibility of the uptick rule change we could see a very nice bounce especially in the sectors shorted most like financials. This will certainly slow down action on the down side but may not be the ultimate savior. In perfect markets there needs to be perfect information, and if they suspend mark-to-market accounting it may cause a short rally, but then a massive sell off once people realize they have no idea what the company really has on their books. However if they can suspend mark-to-market for the short term, and things get better, and reinstate the mark-to-market accounting rule, and these banks show profits we could see a huge stock market rally. Lately I have been keeping an eye on the small caps. I have been buying a short cap etf that trades 3 to 1 ticker TNA. I will most likely buy some more on the next dip. There has been a lot more than expected M&A activity lately which shows companies are getting financing (a very good sign), it could cause some small caps to heat up in hopes to be taken over. If you want to play individual stocks, check into small cap bio techs, and pharma but I suggest buying a small cap ETF maybe a Russell 2000 ETF or something.

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Monday, March 9, 2009

How The Financial Crisis, Stock Market Crash, & Economic Collapse Happened In a Nutshell

This is the video I created. Youtube would not allow me to use Gimme Shelter by the Rolling Stones because of copyright laws. However fellow Youtube friend droxsings let me use his cover! Please rate this video and leave comments on my blog or Youtube. I worked very hard on this video believe it or not, and I would appreciate some feedback. Thanks!

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