HOT TRADING STRATEGIES FOR A COLD MARKET
Daily Stock Market Equity and Options Trading Commentary

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Saturday, July 18, 2009

The 50 Best CEOs May 2001... Stunning

While I was doing some organizing today, I came across an old magazine I had purchased sometime around May 2001. The magazine is Worth, and the cover caught my eye with "The 50 Best CEOs" and of course it had Enron's Jeff Skilling which immediately sparked my interest. Talk about a major change! Some of the CEOs listed in this this magazine will go down as some of the biggest crooks ever, but of course I agree with many of the CEO's listed in the list of 50.

I decided I would post "The 50 Best CEOs" according to Worth as you may find it as interesting as I did. NOTE: the % indicated after each CEOs Company is the 3-Year Return, if it is in parenthesis it is a negative return.


  1. Steve Ballmer - Microsoft - 42%
  2. Jeffrey Skilling - Enron - 200%
  3. Phillip Purcell - Morgan Stanley - 76%
  4. James Morgan - Applied Materials - 192%
  5. Margaret (Meg) Whitman - eBay - 59%
  6. Lawrence Ellison - Oracle - 284%
  7. Koichi Nishimura - Solectron - 157%
  8. John Chambers - Cisco Systems - 102%
  9. Scott McNealy - Sun Microsystems - 269%
  10. Dennis Kozlowski - Tyco International - 105%
  11. David Pottruck - Charles Schwab - 118%
  12. Steve Jobs - Apple Computer - 78%
  13. James McNeaney JR. - 3M - 39%
  14. Steven Appleton - Micron Technology - 141%
  15. Jeffrey Immelt - General Electric - 69%
  16. Henry Paulson JR. - Goldman Sachs - 18%
  17. Kenneth Freeman - Quest Diagnostics - 492%
  18. Steven Burd - Safeway - 55%
  19. Frederick Smith - Fedex - 32%
  20. Craig Barrett - Intel - 58%
  21. Michael Dell - Dell Computer - 48%
  22. Richard Fairbank - Capital One - 148%
  23. Kenneth Chenault - American Express - 42%
  24. James Kelly - UPS - 12.3% (1-Year Return)
  25. Robert Ulrich - Target - 90%
  26. William McGuire - UnitedHealth Group - 89%
  27. George David - United Technologies - 88%
  28. James Truchard - National Instruments - 113%
  29. Richard Kovacevich - Wells Fargo - 23%
  30. Henry Nicholas III - Broadcom - 21%
  31. Robert Nardelli - Home Depot - 103%
  32. Arthur Levinson - Genentech - 48%
  33. Gordon Bethune - Continental Airlines - 18.4%
  34. Ronald DeFeo - Terex - (16%)
  35. Leonard Schaeffer - Wellpoint Health Networks - 76%
  36. William Wise - El Paso - 136%
  37. Robrt Walter - Cardinal Health - 88%
  38. Alain Belda - Alcoa - 117%
  39. Kevin Knight - Knight Transportation - 20%
  40. Russell Lewis - New York Times Company - 35%
  41. Dan Akerson - XO Communications - 60%
  42. Jacques Nasser - Ford Motor - (9%)
  43. Roger Jarvis - SPinnaker Exploration - 70%
  44. Jure Sola - Sanmina - 258%
  45. David D'Alessandro - John Hancock Financial - 131%
  46. Douglas Rock - Smith International - 50%
  47. William Roelandts - Xilinx - 307%
  48. John Wren - Omnicom - 107%
  49. Clark McLeod - McLeod USA - 78%
  50. William Wrigley JR. - WM. Wrigley JR. 27%
And there you have the 50 best CEOs in May 2001 from Worth. Which is ironic because some of these CEOs actually made the company value worthless. Note how many of these CEOs are still the CEO today, not to mention some of the companies that have went bankrupt or suffered very hard times lately.

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Friday, July 17, 2009

Why I Sell Put Options Instead of Setting Limit and Market Orders Part I

In this post I am sharing why I never set market orders and rarely set limit orders when purchasing stocks/ETF's. To understand this post you'll need somewhat of a background in stock options. To learn more about options and, how options can help protect your portfolio, and allow you to speculate with less money up front click here.

The first rule of serious investing is never set market orders! Never set market especially when the volume on the stock is light. If the last price of a stock was $8.50 and the current bid is $8.25 and current ask is $9 and you place an order to buy at market, you will buy at $9. I would suggest putting a limit order a penny to 5 cents above the current bid, this will give you the highest bid. This may result in getting the stock for cheaper.

So why not use a limit? When trying to buy a stock I'll use the PUT option. If a stock is at 50 and I wanted to pay 45, I will then simply sell the closest to expiration put option contract for the 45 strike. I will then get a premium, and if the stock is below the price I want to pay, when the contract expires, I get the stock at the price I would have picked it up at anyway (price I would use to place the limit order). This helps get into the position cheaper, and if you're like the old me (before I used this strategy) and set limit orders which automatically cancel at the end of the day; how many times have you forgot to replace that order on the following day?

How many times have you placed a limit order just to watch it never get filled? Well if you sell the put option you'll receive a premium, so if you don't get the stock at your set price, at least you keep the premium. A way to look at it is you're getting "free money" if the option expires above the strike. Obviously you wouldn't use this strategy if you were buying less than 100 shares, or if you absolutely "needed the stock today" in your portfolio. The trade off is, if the stock trades at or below what your limit order would have been, and takes off to the upside, expiring above the strike, you don't get the stock nor gains from the stock, just the gain of the premium from selling the put option. In order to get the stock, it needs to close below the strike on the given options expiration day in order to get the shares. Another negative of selling the put option is that options are less liquid than stocks, meaning you won't be able to get in and out of the position as easily.

This is part one of two. In this post I will demonstrate this option strategy on a list of 25 popular stocks. In part two, I will show you this strategy using very volatile ETF's which I believe are safer than individual stocks, believe it or not.

All data as of market close Friday July 17, 2009.

HOW TO READ THE TABLE

NOTE: When using this strategy, I first decide what I am willing to pay for the stock. Let's keep it simple and say I'm willing to buy the stock at a share price of 5% lower. In order to fit this table in my blog, I needed to use abbreviations in the table.

Abbreviations used in table:
Price: The most recent closing price (last quote price) for the stock
5%: The price which I am willing to pay for the stock which is 5% lower than the closing price
Strike: The closest contract strike price to the 5% lower price. It may be slightly higher or slightly lower than the 5% lower price.
Prem.: This is the theoretical premium received from selling the put option
Adj. Cost: This is the adjusted cost for the stock, if you do happen to end up with the shares at expiration.

The first stock listed in the table below is Apple (AAPL). An example of this option strategy on AAPL would be interpreted as:

Sell the Apple (AAPL) August 145 put option. This will give you $2.36 a share for Apple. If Apple expires above the indicated strike price you profit 100% of the premium received, if not your cost per share of the stock is $142.64, 6% lower than the close price and 1% lower than the price I was willing to pay.

Company
Ticker
Price
5%
Strike
Prem.
Adj. Cost














Apple Inc.
AAPL
151.75
144.16
145
2.36
142.64
Baidu, Inc.(ADR)
BIDU
321.6
305.52
310
15.1
294.9
Bank of America Corporation
BAC
12.89
12.25
12
0.52
11.48
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT
33.99
32.29
32
1.14
30.86
Chevron Corporation
CVX
65.12
61.86
60
0.7
59.3
Cisco Systems, Inc.
CSCO
20.51
19.48
19
0.25
18.75
Citigroup Inc.
C
3.02
2.87
3
0.45
2.55
Exxon Mobil Corporation
XOM
68.52
65.09
65
0.9
64.1
Ford Motor Company
F
6.14
5.83
6
0.37
5.63
General Electric Company
GE
11.65
11.07
11
0.32
10.68
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
GS
156.84
149.00
150
4.1
145.9
Google Inc.
GOOG
430.25
408.74
410
6.3
403.7
Intel Corporation
INTC
18.79
17.85
18
0.39
17.61
International Business Machines
IBM
115.42
109.65
110
1.4
108.6
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
JPM
36.89
35.05
35
1.04
33.96
MasterCard Incorporated
MA
179.84
170.85
170
4.85
165.15
Microsoft
MSFT
24.29
23.08
23
0.41
22.59
Morgan Stanley
MS
27.99
26.59
27
1.38
25.62
Palm, Inc.
PALM
15.38
14.61
15
1.17
13.83
Research In Motion Limited (USA)
RIMM
72.43
68.81
70
2.48
67.52
Sirius XM Radio Inc.
SIRI
0.393
0.37
1
0.65
0.35
The Boeing Company
BA
41.36
39.29
40
1.54
38.46
Visa Inc.
V
64.1
60.90
60
1.23
58.77
Wells Fargo & Company
WFC
25
23.75
24
1.23
22.77
Yahoo! Inc.
YHOO
16.84
16.00
16
0.84
15.16


All but one of these options expire on August 22; therefore the last trading day is Friday, August 21, 2009. The Sirius strategy from the table above expires in December. The Sirius Satellite Radio December $1 Put is an interesting play I have been watching. If you wanted to go long Sirius, it may be a good idea to sell this Put, as it will get you in the stock 12.5% below the current share price and give you a lot of room to the upside in case it starts to rally.

These are just examples, if you're more bullish/bearish, you’ll want to adjust the strike price and expiration accordingly.

I have been using this strategy to purchase my shares and I find it has been working well. It is a bad idea to use this strategy as a form of speculation, in other words selling a put for the premium just because you think a stock will never get to a lower strike by options expiration. Remember even if the stock goes to $0 a share, you're still obligated to buy it for the indicated strike.

To learn more about Selling Puts and other option strategies check out my option trading E-Books.


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Most Active Stock Options July 17, 2009

The top 10 most active stock option contracts traded today were all for either Citigroup (C) or Bank of America (BAC). Read my blog post 10 Stocks to Watch on July Options Expiration for some possible reasons why. It is unusual that all ten of the most active option contracts were between two stocks. Usually you'll see the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY), Dow Diamonds (DIA), or the PowerShares QQQ (QQQQ) trade in the most actives, but not today on this options expiration Friday. The list of most actives is in order below.
  1. Citigroup July 3 Call Option
  2. Citigroup July 3 Put Option
  3. Bank of America July 13 Call Option
  4. Citigroup August 3 Call Option
  5. Citigroup August 3 Put Option
  6. Bank of America July 13 Put Options
  7. Citigroup August 5 Call Options
  8. Citigroup August 4 Call Options
  9. Citigroup July 5 Put Options
  10. Citigroup August 5 Put Options

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I Assume the Stock Market is About to Get Real Volatile

Historically on options expiration days especially, as we enter the witching hour (an hour before the stock market closing bell) things get very volatile.

4 Things to watch for on options expiration:
  • Violent Swings either up or down
  • Market velocity; how many times it crosses into positive territory from negative and vice versa
  • The Volatility Index (VIX); anything below 30 is a sign of market stabilization, watch for the VIX to turn positive (currently down 1.42 points to 24)
  • Option premiums explosion; sometimes the time value premiums on options get pushed up, as many traders are trying to close positions and will pay higher premium just so the stock is not assigned
I assume the stock market is about to get real volatile...

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STEC Options Trade Update: Over 1000% Gain in 42 Days

As stated on July 14 in my blog post Research + IBD = HUGE Profit I was looking to get out of STEC Inc (STEC) on the 15th, but did not as stated in my blog post STEC Still Bullish. I May Let the Options Expire and Take the Stock. However, on July 16, 2009 I traded out of 80% of my call contracts for a gain of over 1000%. STEC has been on fire and I wanted to lock in this huge profit. I will allow my remaining option contracts to exercise, and I'll most likely begin writing out my shares Monday for the August 30-35 strike range. I sold the call contracts for $14.80 per share or $1480 per contract yesterday, a gain of 1020%.

As stated before, thanks to some tedious research, knowing which options to buy and when, and IBD I was able to pull this profit in just over 40 days.

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CIT Group (CIT) Talking with JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs about Financing Options

The Government stated they would not back CIT Group (CIT) but technically they are. CIT is in talks with JP Morgan (JPM), and Goldman Sachs (GS) seeking short term financing for $2 to $3 Billion to avoid bankruptcy. If JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs back CIT Group, and the U.S. Government is backing JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs... Then isn't the U.S. Government technically backing CIT Group? Sphere: Related Content

Mid Day Stock Options Watch July 17, 2009

The top 10 stock option contracts which have traded as of mid day July 17, 2009:

  1. Citigroup (C) July 3 Call Option
  2. Bank of America (BAC) July 13 Call Option
  3. Citigroup (C) August 4 Call Option
  4. Citigroup (C) August 3 Call Option
  5. Citigroup (C) August 3 Put Option
  6. Bank of America (BAC) July 13 Put Option
  7. Bank of America (BAC) August 13 Call Option
  8. General Electric (GE) July 12 Call Option
  9. Financial SPDR (XLF) July 12 Call Option
  10. Citigroup (C) August 5 Call Option
Surprisingly the first two on this list were two options I performed an analysis on last night here, and were declared the "best bang for your buck".

Looking ahead to the August options listed above, it looks like the options market is predicting a further rally in the financials. Be careful going short.

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VIX Sinks Below 25 on a Rather Volatile Trading Session

The Volatility Index or VIX has dropped below 25 on this volatile options expiration Friday. The VIX has not been this low since September 11, 2008. I think the VIX at these levels is a very bullish sign for the stock market. However if we finish down (significantly) on both the Stock Market and the Volatility Index, I believe a short term correction will come sooner rather than later.
See the VIX charted below (click to enlarge).



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Stock Market Volatile for Options Expiration

I have traded the call contracts for the FAZ July 43 at least a dozen times already resulting in gains of 50% - 77%. I'm also looking to get out of Level 3 Communications (LVLT), as I picked this up less than a week ago for $1.37 a share, and the options on this stock are nearly illiquid. However I'm having a very difficult time getting my ask of $1.58 to get hit. Sphere: Related Content

Stock Market Futures Check Option Expiration July 17, 2009

As of now 2:22 AM, the stock market futures are down across the board, but not much given the rally we've had this week. The DOW futures are down 14 points, S&P futures down 1.70 points, and the NASDAQ futures down 1 point. I expect a very volatile trading day as it is the final day for the July options expiration.

To give you a complete listing of the option expiration dates, Below is a detailed options expiration calendar for 2009 from the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE).

(Click image to enlarge)


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10 Stocks to Watch on July Options Expiration

As we enter the final day of the July options expiration, I decided to post about stocks which have a greater than 50% probability of yielding higher returns in just 1 day. These stocks all have higher Betas, which is essential to bring about better option premiums. The higher premium is necessary in order to write them out and return this gain in just one day. The strategy used is the Buy/Write option strategy, which means the stock is purchased and immediately an in the money covered call option is sold against it. The strike prices for these stocks are very close to the current share price of the stock (at the money). The premium received on the call option will outweigh the share price given up (results in a net gain).

(Share Price - Strike Price + Premium Received from call option) > Share Price

The stocks which yield the highest return and the greatest amount of downside protection are listed after the 10 Buy/Write option ideas.

To understand this post you'll need a strong background of options. To learn more about options and, how options can help protect your portfolio, and allow you to speculate with less money up front click here.

All data as of market close Thursday July 16, 2009.

Buy Write Option Strategy #1: Buy American Express (AXP) stock and sell the July 27.50 Call option. This will give you downside protection of 3.36% for the day. The current options market is factoring in a 76.3% probability American Express will close at or above the indicated strike at the end of trade Friday July 17 yielding a 0.60% return.

Buy Write Option Strategy #2: Buy Bank of America (BAC) stock and sell the July 13 Call option. This will give you downside protection of 3.72% for the day. The current options market is factoring in a 78.4% probability Bank of America will close at or above the indicated strike at the end of trade Friday July 17 yielding a 2.43% return.

Buy Write Option Strategy #3:
Buy Caterpillar (CAT) stock and sell the July 34 Call option. This will give you downside protection of 1.26% for the day. The current options market is factoring in a 55.9% probability Caterpillar will close at or above the indicated strike at the end of trade Friday July 17 yielding a 0.82% return.

Buy Write Option Strategy #4: Buy Citigroup (C) stock and sell the July 3 Call option. This will give you downside protection of 4.29% for the day. The current options market is factoring in a 56% probability Citigroup will close at or above the indicated strike at the end of trade Friday July 17 yielding a 3.3% return.

Buy Write Option Strategy #5: Buy Dendreon (DNDN) stock and sell the July 23 Call option. This will give you downside protection of 1.22% for the day. The current options market is factoring in a 50.7% probability Dendreon will close at or above the indicated strike at the end of trade Friday July 17 yielding a 1.17% return.

Buy Write Option Strategy #6: Buy Joy Global (JOYG) stock and sell the July 35 Call option. This will give you downside protection of 2.52% for the day. The current options market is factoring in a 71.1% probability Joy Global will close at or above the indicated strike at the end of trade Friday July 17 yielding a 0.67% return.

Buy Write Option Strategy #7: Buy JP Morgan (JPM) stock and sell the July 36 Call option. This will give you downside protection of 1.22% for the day. The current options market is factoring in a 57.2% probability JP Morgan will close at or above the indicated strike at the end of trade Friday July 17 yielding a 0.86% return.

Buy Write Option Strategy #8: Buy Palm (PALM) stock and sell the July 15 Call option. This will give you downside protection of 1.86% for the day. The current options market is factoring in a 52.1% probability Palm will close at or above the indicated strike at the end of trade Friday July 17 yielding a 1.53% return.

Buy Write Option Strategy #9: Buy Wells Fargo (WFC) stock and sell the July 25 Call option. This will give you downside protection of 1.72% for the day. The current options market is factoring in a 78.6% probability Wells Fargo will close at or above the indicated strike at the end of trade Friday July 17 yielding a 1.52% return.

Buy Write Option Strategy #10: Buy Wynn Resorts (WYNN) stock and sell the July 37 Call option. This will give you downside protection of 2.27% for the day. The current options market is factoring in a 63.8% probability Wynn will close at or above the indicated strike at the end of trade Friday July 17 yielding a 0.88% return.

Based on the analysis performed above the "Best Bang for Your Buck" stocks would be either Bank of America or Citigroup, as both stocks return and protect above average (of the 10 stocks analyzed).

NOTE: You may want to watch these stocks throughout the day as they move higher/lower and closer to a given strike price. This is because buying and writing closer to a strike price will yield a greater return. The probability won't be as high but the protection and the return will be greater in most cases. The time values will evaporate throughout the trading day, but similar strategies can be used for the next option expiration. In some cases it is better to use this strategy the day before the option expiration and within 1 hour of the market close.

Keep in mind when using this strategy it is essential that broker commissions are low enough to profit from the position.

To see this strategy on a list of more volatile, higher return, greater downside protection leveraged ETF's click here.

As a special thank you to my readers, I've created a printable spreadsheet, which clearly shows which stocks are above average by highlighting the % in a color.



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Thursday, July 16, 2009

Direxion ETF's: High Delta High Return 1 Day Trade Ideas

With just 1 day left being Friday July 17, 2009, for the July options expiration, there are still several Buy/Write option strategies which will yield high returns (considering the probabilities and it is just 1 trading day). In this post I am using the highly volatile Direxion ETF shares, which seek to return 3 times a specific basket of stocks.

To understand this post and how to open the Buy/Write option strategy click here or check out my options trading E-Books.

All of the ETF option ideas listed in this post have high probability of expiring above the indicated strike price by market close Friday. All of these option call contracts are written in the money which means they'll give you significant downside protection, in case the ETF falls after purchased you'll be protected for the % indicated.

HOW TO READ THE TABLE

The first ETF listed in the table below is the Direxion Daily Large Cap Bull 3X Shares (BGU). An example of how the Buy/Write option Strategy on BGU would be interpreted as:

Buy the Direxion Daily Large Cap Bull 3X Shares (BGU) ETF and sell the July 35 Call option. This will give you downside protection of 3.53%. The current options market is factoring in a 73.2% probability BGU will close at or above 35 a share by market close Friday returning 0.86%.

All data as of market close Thursday July 16, 2009.

ETF Strike Return % Protect% Probability%





Direxion Daily Large Cap Bull 3X Shares (BGU) 35 0.86 3.53 73.2
Direxion Daily Mid Cap Bull 3X Shares (MWJ) 60 1.10 2.83 65.7
Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull 3X Shares (TNA) 29 1.42 3.38 80.2
Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X Shares (ERX) 28 0.94 3.92 72.6
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3X Shares (TYH) 95 0.22 6.42 93.3
Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) 47 1.56 4.93 69.0
Direxion Daily Developed Markets Bull 3X Shares (DZK) 50 0.09 8.72 95.7
Direxion Daily Emerging Markets Bull 3X Shares (EDC) 85 1.03 4.05 71.7
Direxion Daily 10 Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (TYD) 45 0.31 8.75 90.8
Direxion Daily 30 Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (TMF) 38 1.13 3.22 67.1





Direxion Daily Large Cap Bear 3X Shares (BGZ) 31 3.33 6.99 84.0
Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares (TZA) 17.5 0.25 14.25 97.5
Direxion Daily Energy Bear 3X Shares (ERY) 21 1.11 4.07 74.0
Direxion Daily Technology Bear 3X Shares (TYP) 17.5 0.77 4.67 76.6
Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ) 39 0.53 6.35 84.4
Direxion Daily Developed Markets Bear 3X Shares (DPK) 25 1.30 15.45 85.2





Averages
0.84 5.17 77.93

From the analysis above the two best ETF's look to be the Large Cap Bear (BGZ), and the Developed Markets Bear (DPK); this is because both are higher than the average in all three categories. However the volume on the DPK is very light making it almost illiquid to trade options on, therefore the ETF which happens to be the best based on this analysis is the BGZ.

Below is a printable spreadsheet, which shows which ETF's are above average by highlighting the % in a color (click on image to enlarge and print).



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Google Beats Q2 Estimates

Breaking news: Google beats estimates by reporting 5.36 a share versus the estimate of $5.08 a share, and also beats revenue which was initially reported as an error. This makes my blog reader Zac the winner of the Merrill Lynch Squeeze Bull. Google looks to be selling off slightly after reporting and is down $4.00 to $434 a share after hours. May rebound slightly as the first revenue report was an error. I Will be listening to Google's conference call shortly. Sphere: Related Content

American Express Sizzling

American Express has been on a tear this last week, and is a certainly a stock to watch. I had my shares written out for the July 27.50 strike, and I'm happy I bought them back for a nickel with about 10 days until expiration. I am looking ahead to write American Express out for the August 30-35 strike, depending on the premium received. I expect a pull back soon for most financials, but the DOW component American Express (AXP) would be one I'd buy on a pull back. Sphere: Related Content

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Financials Surge Again! Are we Due for a Correction? 10 Ways to Profit and Protect

With the stock market rallying again on Wednesday, it would have been another great opportunity to get protective, as it's cheaper on up days. I believe this may just be a short squeeze riding into the options expiration Friday, as I think the market is still due for a correction (see why from the chart here). The financials being the sector with the largest gains, as seen from the table below, I believe they may suffer the largest pull back if the market happens to correct.

Company March 6 Low July 15 Close % Change




American Express 9.71 27.22 180.33
Bank of America 3.00 13.42 347.33
Bank of NY Mellon 15.67 29.37 87.43
Citigroup 1.00 3.17 217.00
Goldman Sachs 73.25 155.26 111.96
JP Morgan 14.96 36.26 142.38
Morgan Stanley 16.70 28.80 72.46
State Street 17.34 47.53 174.11
SunTrust 8.76 16.77 91.44
Wells Fargo 7.80 25.30 224.36




Average % Change

164.88

In this post I will give 10 Buy/Write option scenarios which if purchased, and the stock stays above the indicated strike price, you'll return the given % (in just 37 days). If the stock drops more than the downside protection indicated, you "bank" 100% profit on your covered call option, but will hold the stock at a net loss. The good news is you'll be able to write it out for another expiration ("roll" it forward).

The Buy/Write option strategy is buying the stock and immediately writing a covered call on it, therefore this post requires the knowledge of options. Covered call options are an excellent way to create a source of income for your portfolio, as I'll show you 10 ways below. You may have heard options are extremely risky, but this type of option strategy is actually safer than holding the stock if the market corrects, the trade off however is that if the market continues to rally you have limited upside. Click here to learn more about getting into and out of option strategies like the ones mentioned above, option pricing, and more.

For this analysis I've decided to choose a strike price with a premium, which will yield at least 8% downside protection, and return at least 2% (if the stock stays above the indicated strike over the next 37 days).

All data is as of market close Wednesday July 15, 2009.

Buy Write Option Strategy #1: Buy American Express Company (NYSE:AXP) stock and sell the August 25 Call option. This will give you downside protection of 12.12%. The current options market is factoring in a 69.9% probability American Express will close at or above the indicated strike at August options expiration yielding a 3.97% return.

Buy Write Option Strategy #2: Buy Bank of America Corporation (NYSE:BAC) stock and sell the August 12 Call option. This will give you downside protection of 14.98%. The current options market is factoring in a 72.8% probability Bank of America will close at or above the indicated strike at August options expiration yielding a 4.40% return.

Buy Write Option Strategy #3: Buy The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (NYSE:BK) stock and sell the August 27 Call option. This will give you downside protection of 11.07%. The current options market is factoring in a 69.3% probability Bank of NY Mellon will close at or above the indicated strike at August options expiration yielding a 3.00% return.

Buy Write Option Strategy #4: Buy Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C) stock and sell the August 3 Call option. This will give you downside protection of 8.20%. The current options market is factoring in a 84.2% probability Citigroup will close at or above the indicated strike at August options expiration yielding a 2.84% return.

Buy Write Option Strategy #5: Buy Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS) stock and sell the August 145 Call option. This will give you downside protection of 8.87%. The current options market is factoring in a 71.0% probability Goldman Sachs will close at or above the indicated strike at August options expiration yielding a 2.26% return.

Buy Write Option Strategy #6: Buy JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) stock and sell the August 34 Call option. This will give you downside protection of 9.51%. The current options market is factoring in a 70.0% probability JP Morgan will close at or above the indicated strike at August options expiration yielding a 3.28% return.

Buy Write Option Strategy #7: Buy Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) stock and sell the August 27 Call option. This will give you downside protection of 10.52%. The current options market is factoring in a 68.3% probability Morgan Stanley will close at or above the indicated strike at August options expiration yielding a 4.27% return.

Buy Write Option Strategy #8: Buy State Street Corporation (NYSE:STT) stock and sell the August 45 Call option. This will give you downside protection of 10.10%. The current options market is factoring in a 65.70% probability State Street will close at or above the indicated strike at August options expiration yielding a 4.78% return.

Buy Write Option Strategy #9: Buy SunTrust Banks, Inc. (NYSE:STI) stock and sell the August 15 Call option. This will give you downside protection of 14.91%. The current options market is factoring in a 72% probability SunTrust will close at or above the indicated strike at August options expiration yielding a 4.35% return.

Buy Write Option Strategy #10: Buy Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE:WFC) stock and sell the August 24 Call option. This will give you downside protection of 10.00%. The current options market is factoring in a 61.6% probability Wells Fargo will close at or above the indicated strike at August options expiration yielding a 4.86% return.

These options expire on August 22; therefore the last trading day is Friday August 21, 2009.

As you can see the less volatile the underlying stock and greater probability of expiring above indicated strike price at expiration, the lower the return percentage usually is by expiration. In the case the option expires out of the money (dead), meaning it drops and closes below the indicated strike price at expiration, I just write it out for a similar strike for the following month.

If you are more bullish/bearish you’ll want to adjust the strike price and expiration accordingly. If you’re more bearish write deeper in the money calls, you will not return as much if you get called out, but if you do, and the overall market is down you’ll most likely outperform the market.

Based on the analysis performed above the "Best Bang for Your Buck", would be either American Express, Bank of American or SunTrust Financial. This is because all three of these stocks have higher than average (from the 10 stocks analyzed) downside protection, and return %. The two stocks of the ten which rank above average in all three categories are Bank of America, and SunTrust. Out of these two stocks which rank above average in all three categories, Bank of America is higher than SunTrust in all three categories, making that the stock which is the "best bang for your buck". This will certainly play a role in picking my income generating stocks for the August expiration, as I may be opening some contracts soon for Bank of America (BAC) and this expiration.

As a special thank you to my readers, I've created a printable spreadsheet (as always), which clearly shows which stocks are above average by highlighting the % in a color.

(Click image to enlarge and print).


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Stock Market Surges. Is it Time to Protect?

I will be posting later tonight about financial stocks, I think may be good candidates to write covered call options on, as they have experienced such large gains and FAST! I will be talking about the buy/write option strategy using in the money call options. I am thinking of using 10 of the more popular financial stocks but may choose to write about 15, depending on how long it is going to take me to do the research. I am writing it because I think it's ideal for you, my readers to learn how they can hedge against the downside, especially on financial stocks, as they've experienced the largest gains since the market bottomed in Macrh. This particular strategy will give you downside protection as well as a return for the August options expiration. To learn more about opening/closing option positions, and options in general check out my option trading E-Books I have for sale on my blog. This post will be up and ready to read shortly.

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STEC Still Bullish. I May Let the Options Expire and Take the Stock

As an update to yesterdays blog post Research + IBD = Very HUGE Profit I did not trade out of my STEC Inc (STEC) 17.50 call options today, as the chart is still bullish. I have stop losses set for $9.60 per option contract. I may let the entire position expire in the money as STEC brings nice premiums, and I could write in the Money August 25's for a very nice option premium. Will update accordingly. By the way IBD still rates this stock a 99 STRONG BUY!

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Google Q2 Earnings Predictions. Win a Prize

For fun I decided to ask you (my readers) what you think Google's Q2 earnings will be. The Wall street consensus estimate is Google will earn $5.08 a share. They report earnings after the bell on Thursday July 16, 2009. Simply answer: beat or miss, your per share estimate, and any other comments (maybe why you believe this) in the comment section to this post. I am giving away a small prize for the winner. I will send the person with the closest guess to Google's actual earnings, a Merrill Lynch Squeeze Bull AKA "Stress Bull". No I have not taken my aggressions out on this bull, it's brand new. If 5 people have the same earnings estimate, and it happens to be the closest to their actual earnings, I guess I'll be sending out 5 Merrill Lynch Squeeze Bulls... To see if you've won the contest, remember you're guess and check back. Create a Google account, use your open ID, or email me right after you guess with your info (I will not use your email address for any other reasons) so I can get in touch with you on where to send the squeeze bull. Get your estimate in before the bell Thursday. Like I said it's just for fun and want to hear your ideas. I estimate Google will beat earnings and report $5.28 a share.


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Tuesday, July 14, 2009

ProTech't 15 Popular Tech Stocks with In the Money Option Strategies

With the July options expiration coming to an end this Friday, I decided it's time to look ahead for to the August options expiration. I will be analyzing 15 popular technology stocks and seeing which stock offers the best mix of both return (assuming the stock will be called out at the August expiration) and downside "ProTECHtion", I will then decide which stock is the "best bang for your buck". This is one of my more conservative option strategies. I think it's a good time for this analysis, as I am still anticipating a market pull back, as stated here.

To understand this post you'll need to have the knowledge of options. If you don't understand options and would like to learn more about them, like how they can be used for portfolio protection or a cheaper way to speculate, and more click here.

For this analysis I've decided to choose a strike price at least 7% in the money for each stock (the highest strike price which is lower than the current share price discounted 7%).

All data is as of market close Tuesday July 14, 2009.

Option Strategy #1: Buy Amazon (AMZN) stock and sell the August 75 Call option. This will give you downside protection of 11.26%. The current options market is factoring in a 72.9% probability Amazon will be above the indicated strike at August options expiration yielding a 2.78% return.

Option Strategy #2: Buy Apple (AAPL) stock and sell the August 130 Call option. This will give you downside protection of 10.40%. The current options market is factoring in a 78.4% probability Apple will be above the indicated strike at August options expiration yielding a 1.78% return.

Option Strategy #3: Buy AT&T (T) stock and sell the August 21 Call option. This will give you downside protection of 11.22%. The current options market is factoring in an 82% probability AT&T will be above the indicated strike at August options expiration yielding a 0.77% return.

Option Strategy #4:
Buy Cisco (CSCO) stock and sell the August 17 Call option. This will give you downside protection of 10.84%. The current options market is factoring in an 80.2% probability Cisco will be above the indicated strike at August options expiration yielding a 1.60% return.

Option Strategy #5: Buy Ebay (EBAY) stock and sell the August 15 Call option. This will give you downside protection of 13.93%. The current options market is factoring in an 82.2% probability Ebay will be above the indicated strike at August options expiration yielding a 1.70% return.

Option Strategy #6: Buy Google (GOOG) stock and sell the August 390 Call option. This will give you downside protection of 9.81%. The current options market is factoring in a 78.6% probability Google will be above the indicated strike at August options expiration yielding a 1.64% return.

Option Strategy #7: Buy Hewlett Packard (HPQ) stock and sell the August 34 Call option. This will give you downside protection of 10.10%. The current options market is factoring in a 77.90% probability Hewlett Packard will be above the indicated strike at August options expiration yielding a 1.64% return.

Option Strategy #8: Buy International Business Machine (IBM) stock and sell the August 95 Call option. This will give you downside protection of 8.81%. The current options market is factoring in an 82.2% probability IBM will be above the indicated strike at August options expiration yielding a 0.82% return.

Option Strategy #9: Buy Intel (INTC) stock and sell the August 15 Call option. This will give you downside protection of 11.76%. The current options market is factoring in an 82.9% probability Intel will be above the indicated strike at August options expiration yielding a 0.89% return.

Option Strategy #10: Buy Microsoft (MSFT) stock and sell the August 21 Call option. This will give you downside protection of 10.30%. The current options market is factoring in an 80.5% probability Microsoft will be above the indicated strike at August options expiration yielding a 1.17% return.

Option Strategy #11: Buy Palm (PALM) stock and sell the August 12.50 Call option. This will give you downside protection of 18.11%. The current options market is factoring in a 78.1% probability Palm will be above the indicated strike at August options expiration yielding a 3.55% return.

Option Strategy #12: Buy Qualcomm (QCOM) stock and sell the August 41 Call option. This will give you downside protection of 9.85%. The current options market is factoring in a 76.8% probability Qualcomm will be above the indicated strike at August options expiration yielding a 1.68% return.

Option Strategy #13: Buy Research in Motion (RIMM) stock and sell the August 60 Call option. This will give you downside protection of 11.33%. The current options market is factoring in a 77.7% probability Research in Motion will be above the indicated strike at August options expiration yielding a 1.99% return.

Option Strategy #14: Buy Verizon (VZ) stock and sell the August 26 Call option. This will give you downside protection of 10.81%. The current options market is factoring in an 82.4% probability Verizon will be above the indicated strike at August options expiration yielding a 0.62% return.

Option Strategy #15: Buy Yahoo (YHOO) stock and sell the August 14 Call option. This will give you downside protection of 11.13%. The current options market is factoring in an 83.4% probability Yahoo will be above the indicated strike at August options expiration yielding a 3.36% return.

These options expire on August 22; therefore the last trading day is Friday August 21, 2009. As you can see the less volatile the underlying stock and greater probability of expiring above indicated strike price at expiration, the lower the return % by expiration is. In the case the option expires out of the money (dead), meaning it drops and closes below the indicated strike price at expiration, I just write it out for a similar strike for the following month.

If you are more bullish/bearish you’ll want to adjust the strike price and expiration accordingly. If you’re more bearish write deeper in the money calls, you will not return as much if you get called out, but if you do, and the overall market is down you’ll most likely outperform the market.

Out of these 15 stock ideas, the one which looks best to me based on this analysis is Yahoo. This is because the return is almost double the average of these 15 listed in this article, and the downside protection, and current probability of expiring above the indicated strike at expiration are both above average.

Below is a spreadsheet of 15 stocks listed in this analysis, and I've made it very easy to identify which category(s) the stock is above average in.
  • If the stock is above average in the return % category, the % is highlighted in yellow
  • If the stock is above average in the downside protection % category, the % is highlighted in orange
  • If the stock is above average in the probability % category, the % is highlighted in blue
As you will see the only stock which is highlighted in all three categories is Yahoo. Second best in my opinion would be Research in Motion, as the two most important categories: return % and downside protection % are highlighted. The spreadsheet is ranked in alphabetic order (To print click image to enlarge).



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Research + IBD = HUGE Profit

Thanks to some tedious research and some help from IBD, I am up over 600% in just over 1 month on STEC Inc (STEC). On June 5, 2009 I speculated with purchasing July 17.50 Strike Call options for STEC while the stock was below but close to 18 a share (I blogged about a covered call strategy on June 8, 2009 which I am also up 13+% on - see blog post here). I paid $145 per contract and as of today the bid is $9.60 a share or $960 per contract and the ask is $9.90 a share or $990 per contract. The stock is up slightly after hours so I am hoping it carries into trade Wednesday. I have decided to sell 75% of my contracts tomorrow, and hopefully can get STEC above $27.50 which will translate to more than $1000 per contract for these July 17.50 calls. If STEC does not break this bullish pattern, I will roll the remaining 25% of my calls for a higher strike (thinking the 25 or 30 per share strike) locking in some profits. I may also allow 10% of the contracts to expire in the money and keep the shares to write out for August. I will update my status on this position accordingly.

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Monday, July 13, 2009

Protect Financial Stocks with Cheaper Put Options

As recently posted in OptionMaestro.com, I believe the market will correct further, as a head and shoulders pattern has been formed (see here), which is a bearish sign. However as of Monday morning Meredith Whitney gave a rather bullish outlook on two of the larger financial stocks Goldman Sachs (GS), and Bank of America (BAC). It will certainly be a busy week for financial stocks, as Goldman Sachs reports Tuesday, and Bank of America reports Friday. Upgrading Goldman Sachs the day before earnings is an extremely good sign in my opinion, however we can't be too sure, so it may still be a good idea to purchase some put protection as a hedge against any long positions.

Monday would have been a great day to get into one/some of the option strategies I will outline below, as financial stocks soared. As I stated we can never be too sure what the market is going to do, so instead of trying to time the market by selling the stock and trying to buy it back at a lower price, a good way to protect your portfolio is to purchase PUT options for protection. A lot of people don't bother with put options because they are expensive, and if the stock rallies 100% of the premium paid for the put option can be lost. However, if you're like me and think that protection all the way down to $0 is unnecessary (for a shorter time period), you may find the strategy in this post useful, as it will allow you to purchase put protection for a cheaper price.

In this article I will talk mainly of financial stocks, as I believe if the market corrects further, these financial stocks will suffer the most, as they've experienced the largest gains since the market bottomed in March. The table below shows how much each of the following financial stocks have increased since March 6.

(all data in this post is as of market close Monday July 13, 2009)

Company March 6 Low July 13 Close % Change




American Express 9.71 24.52 152.52
Bank of America 3 12.99 333.00
Bank of NY Mellon 15.67 28.53 82.07
BB&T 12.9 21.86 69.46
Capital One 7.98 21.86 173.93
Citigroup 1 2.78 178.00
Fifth Third 1.23 7.16 482.11
Goldman Sachs 73.25 149.44 104.01
JP Morgan 14.96 34.71 132.02
Keycorp 5.07 5.38 6.11
MetLife 11.37 29.39 158.49
Morgan Stanley 16.7 26.15 56.59
PNC Financial 16.2 37.94 134.20
Regions Financial 2.76 4.07 47.46
State Street 17.34 46.53 168.34
SunTrust 8.76 16.24 85.39
US Bancorp 8.06 17.69 119.48
Wells Fargo 7.8 24.8 217.95




Average % Change

150.06


As you can see the basket of financial stocks above have increased on average 150% since March 6, 2009; the S&P 500 has increased just over 35%.

As I stated earlier, chances are you won't need protection all the way down to $0, so one way to get into put options for less money is selling a lower put (known as a bear put spread).

Therefore, this post requires the knowledge of stock options, as I'll be talking about opening up a Bear Put Spread option position on each of the stocks listed. If you need help understanding options, or to learn more about opening up one of these positions (and options in general) click here.

The puts purchased/sold in this post are for the August option expiration. The put being purchased is the strike price lower and closest to the current share price, and the put being sold is the next highest put available (below the put being purchased).

Bear Put Spread Option #1: Buy the American Express (AXP) August 24 put and sell the August 23 put. This strategy would cost $44 per contract to open, and gives you protection starting at 24 down to 23 until August 22, 2009. The current options market is factoring in a 32.3% chance you'll need at least this much protection (probability American Express will expire at or below 23 a share) by the August 2009 option expiration.

Bear Put Spread Option #2: Buy the Bank of America (BAC) August 13 put (currently in the money by $0.01) and sell the August 12 put. This strategy would cost $55 per contract to open, and gives you protection from 12.99 down to 12. The current options market is factoring in a 32.9% probability you'll need at least this much protection by the August 2009 option expiration.

Bear Put Spread Option #3: Buy the Bank of NY Mellon (BK) August 28 put and sell the August 27 put. This strategy would cost $42 per contract to open, and gives you protection from 28 down to 27. The current options market is factoring in a 36.1% probability you'll need at least this much protection by the August 2009 option expiration.

Bear Put Spread Option #4: Buy the BB&T (BBT) August 22 put (currently in the money by $0.14) and sell the August 21 put. This strategy would cost $48 per contract to open, and gives you protection from 21.86 down to 21. The current options market is factoring in a 38.5% probability you'll need at least this much protection by the August 2009 option expiration.

Bear Put Spread Option #5: Buy the Capital One (COF) August 22 (ironically also $0.14 in the money) put and sell the August 21 put. This strategy would cost $47 per contract to open, and gives you protection from 21.86 down to 21. The current options market is factoring in a 38.8% probability you'll need at least this much protection by the August 2009 option expiration.

Bear Put Spread Option #6: Buy the Citigroup (C) August 3 put (currently $0.22 in the money) and sell the August 2 put. This strategy would cost $56 per contract to open, and gives you protection from 2.78 down to 2. The current options market is factoring in a 16.7% probability you'll need at least this much protection by the August 2009 option expiration.

Bear Put Spread Option #7: Buy the Fifth Third (FITB) August 7.50 put (currently $0.34 in the money) and sell the August 6 put. This strategy would cost $66 per contract to open, and gives you protection from 7.16 down to 6. The current options market is factoring in a 22.6% probability you'll need at least this much protection by the August 2009 option expiration.

Bear Put Spread Option #8: Buy the Goldman Sachs (GS) August 150 put (currently $0.56 in the money) and sell the August 145 put. This strategy would cost $245 per contract to open, and gives you 5 points to the downside starting at 150. The current options market is factoring in a 39.9% probability you'll need at least this much protection by the August 2009 option expiration. Note that on these higher priced stocks it may be worth selling an even lower strike than the one indicated (such as the 140 or even 135).

Bear Put Spread Option #9: Buy the JP Morgan (JPM) August 35 put (currently $0.29 in the money) and sell the August 34 put. This strategy would cost $51 per contract to open, and gives you protection from 34.71 down to 34. The current options market is factoring in a 42.1% probability you'll need at least this much protection by the August 2009 option expiration.

Bear Put Spread Option #10: Buy the Keycorp (KEY) August 5 put and sell the August 4 put. This strategy would cost $25 per contract to open, and gives you protection from 5 down to 4. The current options market is factoring in a 13.1% probability you'll need at least this much protection by the August 2009 option expiration.

Bear Put Spread Option #11: Buy the MetLife (MET) August 29 put and sell the August 28 put. This strategy would cost $42 per contract to open, and gives you protection of 3.4% starting at 29 a share. The current options market is factoring in a 36.6% probability you'll need at least this much protection by the August 2009 option expiration.

Bear Put Spread Option #12: Buy the Morgan Stanley (MS) August 28 put (currently in the money) and sell the August 27 put. This strategy would cost $45 per contract to open, and gives you protection from 27.91 down to 27 (currently $0.09 per share in the money). The current options market is factoring in a 39.7% probability you'll need at least this much protection by the August 2009 option expiration.

Bear Put Spread Option #13: Buy the PNC Financial (PNC) August 37.50 put and sell the August 36 put. This strategy would cost $70 per contract to open, and gives you protection from 37.50 down to 36. The current options market is factoring in a 36.2% probability you'll need at least this much protection by the August 2009 option expiration.

Bear Put Spread Option #14:
Buy the Regions Financial (RF) August 4 put and sell the August 2.50 put. This strategy would cost $35 per contract to open, and gives you protection of 37.5% starting at 4 per share. The current options market is factoring in a 4.3% probability you'll need at least this much protection by the August 2009 option expiration.

Bear Put Spread Option #15: Buy the State Street (STT) August 46 put and sell the August 45 put. This strategy would cost $43 per contract to open, and gives you protection of 2.2% starting at 46 per share. The current options market is factoring in a 39.6% probability you'll need at least this much protection by the August 2009 option expiration.

Bear Put Spread Option #16: Buy the SunTrust (STI) August 16 put and sell the August 15 put. This strategy would cost $43 per contract to open, and gives you protection from 16 down to 15. The current options market is factoring in a 32.6% probability you'll need at least this much protection by the August 2009 option expiration.

Bear Put Spread Option #17: Buy the US Bancorp (USB) August 17 put and sell the August 16 put. This strategy would cost $35 per contract to open, and gives you protection from 17 down to 16. The current options market is factoring in a 26.8% probability you'll need at least this much protection by the August 2009 option expiration.

Bear Put Spread Option #18: Buy the Wells Fargo (WFC) August 24 put and sell the August 23 put. This strategy would cost $41 per contract to open, and gives you protection of 4.2% starting at 24 a share (current stock is at 24.80 so it will need to drop 3.2% before your protected - if you want full protection buy an in the money put option for the 25 strike, it will cost more but will protect you now). The current options market is factoring in a 34.2% probability you'll need at least this much protection by the August 2009 option expiration.

Financial ETF Ideas:

Bear Put Spread Option #19: Buy the Financial SPDR (XLF) August 12 put (currently in the money by $0.19) and sell the August 11 put. This strategy would cost $43 per contract to open, and gives you protection from 11.81 down to 11 or 6.9% from current share price. The current options market is factoring in a 31.5% probability you'll need at least this much protection by the August 2009 option expiration.

Bear Put Spread Option #20: Buy the Proshares Ultra Financials 2X leveraged ETF (UYG) August 4 put (currently in the money by $0.19) and sell the August 3 put. This strategy would cost $34 per contract to open, and gives you protection from 3.81 down to 3 or 21.3% from current share price. The current options market is factoring in a 17.5% probability you'll need at least this much protection by the August 2009 option expiration.

Bear Put Spread Option #21: Buy the Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X leveraged ETF (FAS) August 43 put and sell the August 42 put. This strategy would cost $50 per contract to open, and gives you protection from 43 down to 42. The current options market is factoring in a 37.9% probability you'll need at least this much protection by the August 2009 option expiration. With these extremely volatile leveraged ETF's I recommend expanding the spread (sell the 40 or even as low as the 39 strike put option).

A general rule I like to follow is to sell the put contract about 7%-15% lower than the strike price of the put contract I purchased (does not apply for more volatile stocks and leveraged ETF's). The reason I like selling the spread when hedging my portfolio is because it allows me to hedge for a cheaper premium, and although it gives me less downside protection, I believe it should protect the majority of the move lower if the market does correct.

These options expire on August 22, 2009; therefore the last trading day is Friday August 21, 2009. As you can see, on average the greater the protection the more expensive the contract is to open.

If you're more bullish/bearish you’ll want to adjust the strike price accordingly. If you’re even more bearish, sell a put much lower than the one purchased, or don't sell a put at all. The cost will be more expensive to open the contract, however the downside protection will be greater.

This strategy is a great way to hedge your portfolio. The reason option volumes have exploded over the past 5 years is because they are a great way to hedge your portfolio (see chart here).

If you want to protect your overall portfolio, you may find another strategy I've been using more useful. By using covered call option strategies on the double and triple short leveraged ETFs such as the BGZ, FAZ, SDS, and SKF, I am able to hedge as well. See more details here.


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