Daily Stock Market Equity and Options Trading Commentary

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Saturday, April 11, 2009

Economic Recession Unfolds Video

Economic Recession Unfolds: Low Rates = Growth = High Inflation = Oil Shock = Consumer Crunch = Many Foreclosures = Credit Crisis = Stock Market Crash = Consumer Confidence at Record Low = Bad Economy

It's a vicious circle...

Can you really cure a hangover with another drink?

I created this video to show how we got to where we are in the economy today (in a nutshell). The various songs used in this video are reserved by original artists. The pictures and news articles used in this video are reserved by original sites.

Please comment on how you like my video. Also if you'd please share this video I'd greatly appreciate it!

Tags: ACDC, money talks, print money inflation, money supply, money, good economy, led zeppelin, when the levee breaks, economic stress, stress, economy, economic,high gas, oil crisis, high oil, oil shock, rolling stones,gimme shelter, foreclosure, high unemployment, unemployment, stock market, wall street, bailout, banks fail, bad bank, bailed out, BTO, aint seen nothin yet, the kinks, low budget, consumer confidence, stop spending, retail sales, decimated, economic stimulus, consumer, consumers cut budget, spend less, hurt economy, tough economy

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Friday, April 10, 2009

The Market Was Up but I was Down... Where's the Heat?

Ever wonder why your portfolio is down on an up day or vice versa (most of the time when we're up on down days we are just thankful and don't worry about why..)? A great way to explain this is to see where the money is moving in the market. An easy way to do this is to look at a heatmap, which is why I decided to blog about them. Heatmaps are used to see where the "heat" or where the hot stocks are in the market. My heatmap is from Options 360 and breaks it down by index. The first heatmap picture is below. This was as of market close April 8, 2009 (click on images for a bigger picture).

This particular map shows stocks over a 1 week period and where the money has been moving in the market. The bigger the area the bigger the stock market cap. The brighter the color the higher/lower the stock has traded and if the box is black it is neutral (in terms of %). The percentages are defined from the heat bar below.If we look at the top left box we see it is black. This is Microsoft and as of April 8 it did not change greater than 1% in either direction (for the past week). The next heatmap below is as of market close April 9.

As we can see from this heatmap, 1 day can make a big difference. Microsoft is now the fourth shade of green finishing the 1 week period up 4.91%. This is a great way to see where the money is moving in the market. Many traders use heatmaps on a week to monthly basis, where very few use them for less than a week.

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Thursday, April 9, 2009

Palm Pre Videos Inside Look at Apps and More

This is an update to my previous Palm Pre post. I just came across some videos on Palm and they show an inside look at some of the coming apps for the WebOS based Palm Pre smartphone. To watch the videos click here

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Tuesday, April 7, 2009

Short Week for the Market but A Long Week in School... Google Looking Good

I have not been blogging lately because I have all of my school finals this week. I will try to blog as much as I can, but can't promise anything. This week being a short trading week I may not have posted too much anyway. Today was an ugly day for the bulls, but the good news is volume was lighter. Today I added to my long term portfolio and bought some shares of Google. With GOOG reporting next week it may have been my last chance to get them below 400 a share. I think Google will beat numbers, because the numbers have been revised so low, that it should be an easy beat for GOOG. On the other hand I didn't buy as many shares of Google as I could, because if they miss we could see Google back around 300 a share, and I saved some money to buy more if that happens.

I have a website I run for my family business Golden Age Cheese Co. and I paid Google more this year than any year previous year for click costs (as well as Yahoo and MSN for that matter). Sales were down, clicks were slightly higher (this is because during recessions people find alternate ways of entertainment such as: playing video games, watching TV, and surfing the web... If more people search the web using Google this will reflect in Google's quarter- another reason I think they'll beat), but the price per click was higher; this is because the Internet space is still growing, and the bid per click is increasing. Many analysts leave the increasing cost per click out of the picture. The sponsored keyword market (these are the sponsored results Google puts on the right hand side- an easy and guaranteed way for any business to get to the first page of search results if they bid enough $ per click) is a giant auction where businesses compete by offering a higher bid for each keyword. In 2001 I was top bidder on the keyword cheese for 10 cents a click... I bet I couldn't touch that keyword now for under $1 a click. This is one way Google will be able to continue to grow their profits in the years to come. I am very bullish on Goog! The low end estimate is $4.61 per share and the high end estimate is $5.36 per share with the consensus being at $4.98 per share. Google's last quarter earnings were $5.10 per share. The chart below shows that Google has resistance at around 380 per share, and with a good earnings report and help from the market that should be an easy short term price for Google. If we can break Google above 380 we can see next resistance at around 410 and then around 450 per share. However on the downside if Google breaks below 335 per share which could easily happen with a bad report, we could see Google back down to around 290 per share (click on the chart to get a larger more clear picture).

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