What is the Next Company to be Delisted from the Dow, and which Company will Replace it?
I think the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is due for some new blood by year end 2009, as there are just too many of the 30 Dow components performing poorly. If one of these companies goes bankrupt they’ll certainly be delisted from the DJIA. Recent talks and data from the credit default swap market have assigned the highest probabilities of bankruptcy to: Bank of America, Citigroup, General Electric, and General Motors. Of course there are other companies with even greater risk of bankruptcy, but these are the companies with the highest risk of default among the Dow components. Whether one of these companies actually goes bankrupt or not, I still think the Dow is due for a reshuffle, and I want your guess on what you think for a chance to win some $!
There are two ways to win some money from this contest: the first is the easier of the two and will pay $20 to the winner, and the second is a bit harder and will pay $30 to the winner.
First part of contest: I want to hear which stock you think is next to be delisted from the Dow. Second part of contest: In the case a stock gets removed, I want to know which company will replace it.
Feel free to participate in both parts of the contest!
The rules for the first part of the contest ($20) are as follows:
- State your guess by commenting on this post, which of the 30 Dow components is next to get delisted from the index. You can view all of the 30 Dow components, 52 week highs/ lows, and most recent close price (last price during market hours) in a simple Excel spreadsheet. To download this spreadsheet click here (works best with FireFox). If you don’t think a company will be removed by December 31, 2009, state that and in case of a tie breaker also state what you think the DJIA will close at on December 31, 2009.
- In case of a tie breaker state the price at which the stock being taken from the index will close on the day before it is no longer in the index (Example: if a stock is taken from the index on September 18, 2009 state close price as of September 17, 2009).
- In case multiple companies get delisted simultaneously, the winners will split the prize money equally.
- In the case two or more individuals guess the first company delisted and the same price, the winners will split the prize money equally.
- You must be a resident of the U.S.A and must be 18 years or older.
- Money will be sent via Paypal so you must have a Paypal account.
- You must comment on this blog post with the name of the company only; however you must also email me at optionsmaniac@gmail.com with company name, closing price information (in the case of a tie breaker), and your Paypal email address. I will use your email address for identification purpose only and I will not send any unsolicited emails.
- The sooner you enter this contest the better. The ultimate deadline to enter this contest is July 3, 2009; however if a Dow component files bankruptcy, the DJIA is officially adjusted (or announced to be adjusted) before July 3, 2009, the contest will be declared over.
The rules for the second part of the contest ($30) are as follows:
- State your guess by commenting on this post, which company will replace the company which will be removed first. In the case you don’t think a company will be removed by December 31, 2009 you don’t have to participate in this contest, but why not take a guess for $30?
- In case of a tie breaker state the price at which the stock being added to the index will close on the day before it is listed in the index (Example: if a stock is taken from the index on September 18, 2009 state close price as of September 17, 2009).
- In case multiple companies get listed simultaneously, the winners will split the prize money equally.
- In the case two or more individuals guess the first company added and the same price, the winners will split the prize money equally.
- You must be a resident of the U.S.A and must be 18 years or older.
- Money will be sent via Paypal so you must have a Paypal account.
- You must comment on this blog post with the name of the company only; however you must also email me at optionsmaniac@gmail.com with company name, closing price information (in the case of a tie breaker), and your Paypal email address. I will use your email address for identification purpose only and I will not send any unsolicited emails.
- The sooner you enter this contest the better. The ultimate deadline to enter this contest is July 3, 2009; however if a Dow component files bankruptcy, the DJIA is officially adjusted (or announced to be adjusted) before July 3, 2009, the contest will be declared over.
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