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Daily Stock Market Equity and Options Trading Commentary

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Tuesday, March 3, 2009

It's Way Too Easy to Short This Market...

I think we are due for a bear market rally! I cannot believe how easy it is to short this market. I covered more of my shorts today, but I also purchased some PUT protection is case we keep on falling. I think the market needs to correct itself to the upside a bit however. I think we are at least due for a 100 point 2-3 day rally on the S&P 500. I hope I am right for the bulls out there. I was purchasing some HOG (Harley Davidson) calls today for the 10 strike, GS (Goldman Sachs) calls for the 90 strike, as well as some V (Visa) calls for the 60 strike, all for the March expiration. I had to cost average down my positions I opened less than a week ago. I will sell into any strength. The chart below is of the S&P 500 for the last 10 trading days. This chart is telling me we'll be getting at least one good rally by market close Wednesday. If you look below the chart of the S&P 500 you will see RSI (relative strength index), this is indicating we are oversold. We spent the entire day of March 2, 2009 in oversold territory.


Click on the image of the chart to get a larger more clear picture. RSI was at a low 22.50 today and the last time it was that low on a 10 day 60 minute basis we had over a 100 point rally in the S&P 500 over 4 days. Once again this is just my assumption that a short term rally could be underway.


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