Wednesday, December 1, 2010
Saturday, November 20, 2010
Hedging with Butterfly Put Spreads
In times of a declining market and rising volatility, it can be hard to dish out the higher costs of put option premiums. One way to do this more cost effectively is to purchase something called a butterfly put spread. The good is that these spreads will cost you much less (especially in times of rising volatility) than purchasing just put options, however the bad is that these limit the potential gains (or protection) AND if the market or equity drops too much in value you could still lose your premium paid just as if the the market or equity didn't drop enough for the spread to pay off. I will give you an example in this article using a major index ETF. This article is for educational purpose only I am not recommending buying or selling anything mentioned.
Hedging an entire portfolio with out of the money butterfly put spreads:
The market is up over 15% since late August, so it may be worth looking at buying some protection. First I will have to develop targets: how much I am willing to lose before my protection kicks in, how much I want to hedge, and the time period I want to hedge for. The more and longer that I choose to hedge, the greater the cost.
Let's say I can stomach losing 5% from the current market levels and I think the market is due for a 15% pull back from current levels over the next 2 months. I would then use these targets to develop my option strategy.
Step 1: Using the very popular, very liquid S&P 500 SPDR ETF (SPY) I would purchase the January 114 put options. Note how I got the 114 strike put option. I stated I can withstand declines of 5% from current market levels (at the time of this writing SPY is at 120.29), so a 5% decline from here would put the SPY at roughly 114.
Step 2: I would then sell TWO contracts for every ONE purchased of the SPY January 102 put options. Note how I got the 102 strike put options. I stated I expect a total decline of 15% from the current levels near 120 on the SPY which comes out to 102.
Step 3: I would then purchase the January 90 put options. Note how I got the 90 strike put options. This is just the difference of the contracts in step one and two subtracted from contract in step two. In this case the difference is 12 so we take 12 and subtract it from 102 which gives us 90.
As of current market data each spread can be purchased for $108. If I were to just purchase put options it would cost $173. If the market in fact sells off this would give me protection from roughly 1,140 down to 1,020 on the S&P 500. The maximum profit from this spread would occur if the SPY closed at 102 per share on January options expiration. This would return $1200 per spread or a return of 1,111%. The most that can be lost from this spread is the premium paid of $108, and would result if the SPY closed at or above 114 per share or at or below 90 per share on January options expiration. The two break even points would be the SPY at 112.92 and 91.08 on January options expiration. Commissions were not factored in the calculations above.
This completes the butterfly put spread. Note for safety and saving on transaction costs it should not be done as shown above in three different steps. Most brokerages today have a butterfly put spread order entry form. If they do not I suggest using a two part put spread approach which every brokerage should certainly have. Using put spreads I would first get long the 114/102 put spread, and then get short the 102/90 put spread. This is the exact same spread and should only be entered if brokerages do not offer butterfly put spreads. To learn more about options in general or to get a better understanding of stock options and different option strategies please check out my Simplified Stock Option Trading E-Books. If one has a more tech heavy portfolio it may be a better idea to structure a butterfly put spread using the PowerShares QQQ ETF (QQQQ). If small cap stocks are a holding in the portfolio one should also consider opening butterfly put spreads on the iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM).
Disclosure: Long SPY December 115 Put Options Sphere: Related Content
Hedging an entire portfolio with out of the money butterfly put spreads:
The market is up over 15% since late August, so it may be worth looking at buying some protection. First I will have to develop targets: how much I am willing to lose before my protection kicks in, how much I want to hedge, and the time period I want to hedge for. The more and longer that I choose to hedge, the greater the cost.
Let's say I can stomach losing 5% from the current market levels and I think the market is due for a 15% pull back from current levels over the next 2 months. I would then use these targets to develop my option strategy.
Step 1: Using the very popular, very liquid S&P 500 SPDR ETF (SPY) I would purchase the January 114 put options. Note how I got the 114 strike put option. I stated I can withstand declines of 5% from current market levels (at the time of this writing SPY is at 120.29), so a 5% decline from here would put the SPY at roughly 114.
Step 2: I would then sell TWO contracts for every ONE purchased of the SPY January 102 put options. Note how I got the 102 strike put options. I stated I expect a total decline of 15% from the current levels near 120 on the SPY which comes out to 102.
Step 3: I would then purchase the January 90 put options. Note how I got the 90 strike put options. This is just the difference of the contracts in step one and two subtracted from contract in step two. In this case the difference is 12 so we take 12 and subtract it from 102 which gives us 90.
As of current market data each spread can be purchased for $108. If I were to just purchase put options it would cost $173. If the market in fact sells off this would give me protection from roughly 1,140 down to 1,020 on the S&P 500. The maximum profit from this spread would occur if the SPY closed at 102 per share on January options expiration. This would return $1200 per spread or a return of 1,111%. The most that can be lost from this spread is the premium paid of $108, and would result if the SPY closed at or above 114 per share or at or below 90 per share on January options expiration. The two break even points would be the SPY at 112.92 and 91.08 on January options expiration. Commissions were not factored in the calculations above.
This completes the butterfly put spread. Note for safety and saving on transaction costs it should not be done as shown above in three different steps. Most brokerages today have a butterfly put spread order entry form. If they do not I suggest using a two part put spread approach which every brokerage should certainly have. Using put spreads I would first get long the 114/102 put spread, and then get short the 102/90 put spread. This is the exact same spread and should only be entered if brokerages do not offer butterfly put spreads. To learn more about options in general or to get a better understanding of stock options and different option strategies please check out my Simplified Stock Option Trading E-Books. If one has a more tech heavy portfolio it may be a better idea to structure a butterfly put spread using the PowerShares QQQ ETF (QQQQ). If small cap stocks are a holding in the portfolio one should also consider opening butterfly put spreads on the iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM).
These are just examples and are not recommendations to buy or sell any security; if you're more bullish/bearish, you’ll want to adjust the strike price and expiration accordingly.
The reason option volumes have surged in the last five years is because they are a great way to hedge your portfolio as well as create income off of your shares (see chart here). Keep in mind when using this strategy it is essential that broker commissions are low enough to profit from the position.Disclosure: Long SPY December 115 Put Options Sphere: Related Content
Friday, September 24, 2010
Google Strategy Update
Hey guys, hope all is well. I wanted to update you all on that Google option strategy I did last week. I took my money off the table Friday with a nice profit. I still have some call spreads open which are now free and I have limit order in to sell them for $2,400 and $2,600 which I believe will be tough to get this week unless Google buries the upper strike price. I believe I want to get out before earnings just because I feel more comfortable and even though I may kick myself for leaving $500 on the table, it's a lot better than kicking myself for having them expire worthless! Anyway, I wanted to share my family companies cheese blog with you all. Lots of cool (cheesy) stuff there so check out my cheese blog.
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Monday, September 20, 2010
Time for Google to Run: How I'm Playing It
Trading at just 21X earnings and projected earnings growth of 14% in 2011, Google has become an oversold value stock. With Google (GOOG) pinning to 490 on options expiration Friday, it confirmed a nice breakout and could be a potential trend reversal for the search giant. As an options trader these pattern breakouts are key when choosing my strategies. Following the marked up chart of Google below, I will highlight some key points which led me to put on a bullish option strategy.
(Click chart to enlarge)
Why I am bullish: From the chart above you can see Google broke a major down triangle on September 13 (blue lines). This breakout projects Google back up between 520 and 550 per share. However that is just the beginning... You can also see from this chart above a very choppy inverse head and shoulders pattern with the neckline coming in around 510 per share (yellow dotted line). This 510 level is a key resistance area and if it can break above that (as the triangle breakout suggests) the stock could run back up and test its recent high near 590 per share.
How I am playing it: I am playing quite conservative by purchasing October Call Spreads. I plan on purchasing October 510 calls (the neckline breakout point) and selling the October 540 calls against them. I can get into each spread for a net debit of around $550 which doesn't seem too expensive considering an earnings report falls in that time frame. The reason I'm not purchasing just October calls is because I don't want to purchase too much volatility with the Google earnings announcement falling before expiration (selling an upper call against the lower call will help offset this). The reason I'm not purchasing November calls or call spreads because I don't want to purchase too much time in case Google sells off. If significant profits can be taken, I may choose to close my position before earnings.
Number Crunch: The most that can be lost from each 510/540 call spread is $550 (plus commissions) and will result if Google closes at or below 510 per share on October expiration. The break even point from this spread is shares of Google at 515.50 (less commissions) per share on October expiration, anything above that price until 540 per share will result in unrealized profit. If Google closes at or above 540 per share on October options expiration it will return the maximum of $3,000 per spread or 545%.
As stated, I believe Google is oversold and will use any dips after earnings or in the near future to accumulate shares for my investment account. I still think in order to get some real momentum behind this stock, Google needs to purchase shares back of the company, do a stock split, or declare a dividend... I would be a fan of all three.
The ideas outlined above are bullish strategies and should not be considered if you think the stock will sell off in the near future. However if you feel the stock could move higher in the near future, this strategy could yield a nice gain. To get a better understanding of stock options and different option strategies please check out my Simplified Stock Option Trading E-Books.
Disclosure: Long GOOG October 510 Calls, Short GOOG October 540 Calls Sphere: Related Content
(Click chart to enlarge)Why I am bullish: From the chart above you can see Google broke a major down triangle on September 13 (blue lines). This breakout projects Google back up between 520 and 550 per share. However that is just the beginning... You can also see from this chart above a very choppy inverse head and shoulders pattern with the neckline coming in around 510 per share (yellow dotted line). This 510 level is a key resistance area and if it can break above that (as the triangle breakout suggests) the stock could run back up and test its recent high near 590 per share.
How I am playing it: I am playing quite conservative by purchasing October Call Spreads. I plan on purchasing October 510 calls (the neckline breakout point) and selling the October 540 calls against them. I can get into each spread for a net debit of around $550 which doesn't seem too expensive considering an earnings report falls in that time frame. The reason I'm not purchasing just October calls is because I don't want to purchase too much volatility with the Google earnings announcement falling before expiration (selling an upper call against the lower call will help offset this). The reason I'm not purchasing November calls or call spreads because I don't want to purchase too much time in case Google sells off. If significant profits can be taken, I may choose to close my position before earnings.
Number Crunch: The most that can be lost from each 510/540 call spread is $550 (plus commissions) and will result if Google closes at or below 510 per share on October expiration. The break even point from this spread is shares of Google at 515.50 (less commissions) per share on October expiration, anything above that price until 540 per share will result in unrealized profit. If Google closes at or above 540 per share on October options expiration it will return the maximum of $3,000 per spread or 545%.
As stated, I believe Google is oversold and will use any dips after earnings or in the near future to accumulate shares for my investment account. I still think in order to get some real momentum behind this stock, Google needs to purchase shares back of the company, do a stock split, or declare a dividend... I would be a fan of all three.
The ideas outlined above are bullish strategies and should not be considered if you think the stock will sell off in the near future. However if you feel the stock could move higher in the near future, this strategy could yield a nice gain. To get a better understanding of stock options and different option strategies please check out my Simplified Stock Option Trading E-Books.
These are just examples and are not recommendations to buy or sell any security; if you're more bullish/bearish, you’ll want to adjust the strike price and expiration accordingly.
The reason option volumes have surged in the last five years is because they are a great way to hedge your portfolio as well as create income off of your shares (see chart here). Keep in mind when using this strategy it is essential that broker commissions are low enough to profit from the position.Disclosure: Long GOOG October 510 Calls, Short GOOG October 540 Calls Sphere: Related Content
Friday, September 10, 2010
Still Bullish on QCOM, but Taking Some Profits
Today I am looking at closing out my October in the money call options on Qualcomm (QCOM) but purchasing longer dated call spreads... I purchased the October $37 call options for $1.19 before they reported earnings and popped. I am not looking at closing all of the contracts for a slight premium and rolling into January 41 strike calls but on half of the contracts writing the January 47.50 strike calls against them. This was I have some serious upside potential but I am taking all of my money off the table plus a couple hundred bucks. I still see some room to the upside on Qualcomm which is why I am choosing to create spreads on only half of my January option position, the other half I will either take profits or convert into either diagonal call spreads or vertical call spreads on continued strength in the underlying. To read more about these types of spreads check out my option ebooks here.
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Wednesday, September 1, 2010
An Alternate Investment: Domain Name Investing
I am just writing a quick post to inform everybody on domain name investing. If you have a catchy name or idea you can register a .com name for $11 a year. I just purchased the domain name BetterCheddar.com for my cheese company and I plan on having it forward directly to my site shortly. I paid a nice premium for this domain so you never know who will want to buy your domain names or ideas if you register them today! I registered a catchy name in 2008, BellaMozzarella.com which is Italian for beautiful Mozzarella. This page forwards directly to our Mozzarella Cheese page and I am still very happy with the purchase. If you ever have a good idea I encourage you to spend the $11 to register the domain name, because thousands of companies and individuals search catchy domain names for their business or if you happen to register someones business name before it is their name you could really hit a home run. I just thought I know this is a blog for stock, futures, and options but I figured I would throw a curve ball in to my redaers and inform them of an alternate investment.
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Thursday, August 5, 2010
Anticipating Another BIG Move - A Look at Doji Candlesticks
Once again I find myself writing about another anticipated big move. Once again we Doji'd on the S&P 500 index, this one being the highest quality Doji we've seen in a long time. The S&P 500 traded in a decent range Thursday, but managed to close just 3 hundredths of a point or 0.03 points above the open. This price action means a big move is expected and likely. The bad thing about doji's is that we cannot predict which way the move will be (bullish or bearish). I am guessing the way we move depends on the unemployment number released at 8:30 AM EST Friday. I would assume, if we get a better than expected unemployment situation number Friday it will be bullish, and the opposite holds true (bearish move) if we get a worse than expected unemployment number... However crazier things have happened. The chart below is a prime example of a doji on the S&p 500 index.
Yea so, what's the big deal if we don't know which way it is going to move? This is true, however this is ideal for an option strangle or straddle position which is exactly what I was opening near the close of trade Thursday. Using the weekly options (newer and still testing) I purchased both the 113 strike call and put options on the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY). Each straddle ran me about $130 which means a move of 1% or greater in the S&P 500 index should make this position profitable. The worst case is if the SPY closes at exactly 113 (unlikely) I would lose 100% of the premium paid or $130 for each straddle I opened. If the market opens up flat I may decide to add to this straddle as the market should have a large swing based on Thursday's price action. If you would like to learn more about trading stock options and different strategies used to make money in any market check out my stock option trading ebooks here.
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Yea so, what's the big deal if we don't know which way it is going to move? This is true, however this is ideal for an option strangle or straddle position which is exactly what I was opening near the close of trade Thursday. Using the weekly options (newer and still testing) I purchased both the 113 strike call and put options on the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY). Each straddle ran me about $130 which means a move of 1% or greater in the S&P 500 index should make this position profitable. The worst case is if the SPY closes at exactly 113 (unlikely) I would lose 100% of the premium paid or $130 for each straddle I opened. If the market opens up flat I may decide to add to this straddle as the market should have a large swing based on Thursday's price action. If you would like to learn more about trading stock options and different strategies used to make money in any market check out my stock option trading ebooks here.
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Saturday, July 24, 2010
How I'm Playing the Risk Trade
Three stocks which did very well for my portfolio this past week were: Qualcomm (QCOM), American Express (AXP), and Trina Solar (TSL). I will continue to hold the majority of my long positions (as this entire market moves as a whole these days) until I see the risk trade come off the table. Copper trading above $3.10 and holding is a signal that the risk trade is coming back for the time being. I'd like to see copper futures settle above $3.22 and then $3.40. I've moved my stops to $3.08 now and this position has been working very well for me! For a less risky investor or someone who cannot trade futures check out Freeport-Mcmoran (FCX), Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF), and the most diversified way to play the Metals & Mining SPDR (XME).
I have purchased December 50 strike call options and will look to turn the position into a vertical call spread. I will decide to write upper calls against my lower calls as I'll be watching the ETF near close everyday and monitor the price action. It is also worth noting I may look to write nearer term strikes out on strength; such as the August 56 or September 58, etc... on strength in the XME. To learn how to create similar option strategies and for information on options in general check out my Options Trading Books. Sphere: Related Content
I have purchased December 50 strike call options and will look to turn the position into a vertical call spread. I will decide to write upper calls against my lower calls as I'll be watching the ETF near close everyday and monitor the price action. It is also worth noting I may look to write nearer term strikes out on strength; such as the August 56 or September 58, etc... on strength in the XME. To learn how to create similar option strategies and for information on options in general check out my Options Trading Books. Sphere: Related Content
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
Risk Trade Coming Back
That inverted hammer pattern on copper futures worked like a charm. However we must break through the $3.10 resistance level with two consecutive closes above it. If it does I'm watching material stock names including Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF), Freeport-Mcmoran (FCX) and the the metal and mining SPDR ETF (XME). Stops in on copper futures at $2.99
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Tuesday, July 20, 2010
Big Call Option Bet on Telecommunications Sector Index Fund (IYZ)
Tuesday, very heavy volume traded for the September 20 calls on (IYZ). Most traded near the bid price of $35 (0.35) so it could be slightly more bearish. 15,000 contracts traded on an open interest of zero. I actually liked the price-action on Sprint (S), so I will be watching that out of the group. I also will be watching price-action on AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ) the next few days.
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