Sunday, March 6, 2011
Getting Defensive: 7 Blue Chip Stocks With 7 Buy-Write Option Ideas
I plan on purchasing the shares of blue chip companies and selling covered calls, allowing me to get into these shares cheaper and allowing me to still clip the coupon at least twice. I will be trimming some of the higher beta names out of my portfolio and replacing them with these seven lower beta stocks. This will allow me to participate if the market continues higher, but if the market happens to correct, my portfolio will likely decline less in value.
To continue reading this, view the full article on Seeking Alpha HERE. Sphere: Related Content
Thursday, February 3, 2011
Options Trading With My Three Favorite Consumer Discretionary Stocks
I believe a real recovery is underway and I think the stocks outlined in this article will benefit from this greatly. If we look at the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) compared to the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) over the last year, we can see that the Consumer Discretionary SPDR has outperformed the S&P 500 SPDR by almost 9%.
To continue reading this, view the full article on Seeking Alpha HERE. Sphere: Related Content
Monday, January 31, 2011
Return Some Green Betting on the Greenback with This Bullish Option Strategy
A good question would be when are things extremely overdone? It's just a feeling that comes naturally to most people. One example would have been when the market was melting down in late 2008 and it seemed every person on TV, article online, and even your neighbor, who has no idea how to play the stock market, was calling for an even deeper correction, this would have been a great time to get long the market. Even though you wouldn't have caught the bottom in late 2008 (came in March of 2009), it was an excellent time to be buying stocks.
To continue reading this, view the full article on Seeking Alpha HERE. Sphere: Related Content
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Corning Benefits Most From the Verizon-iPhone Marriage
First I will explain why I am choosing this company versus other companies that will benefit from this news. In the spring of 2010, rumors heated up when The Wall Street Journal broke the news that Qualcomm (QCOM) was ramping up production for the long awaited Verizon iPhone and that it would likely be coming in Q1. As we know, that was right on, since the iPhone is set to debut on Verizon in February. The Google Finance chart below shows the performance of Apple (AAPL), Qualcomm (QCOM), and Verizon (VZ) since May 26, 2010.
Monday, January 24, 2011
How to Hedge With Vertical Put Spreads
With the market up over 25% since early July and the market being quite complacent lately, volatility is relatively cheap making portfolio insurance or put options also relatively cheap. Many have been stating the market is overdue for a pull back, and I also believe a correction could occur whether it be worse than expected economic data in the United States, some bad news out of Europe or Asia, or even another flash crash that spikes fear in the markets, who knows what excuse the market will use to pull back, but it will likely find one soon as we all know trees don't grow to the sky. Another thing to remember is the more we rally before any type of pull back, the worse the pull back will likely be. A 25% move higher in just 6 months is certainly a gift and some of the profits made in the recent months should be set aside to hedge out the next few months, as I stated the greater the rally - the greater the correction is typically.
To continue reading this, view the full article on Seeking Alpha HERE. Sphere: Related Content
Thursday, January 20, 2011
Time for a Correction? 5 Hedging Strategies
I have spent the majority of Wednesday evening reviewing charts - mainly of indices and sectors, to see where I would like to place my hedges. When I believe we are due for a correction, and only expecting a minor 5-7% one if that, I have no problem putting up to 2%-3% of my entire portfolio value into hedges. Just like it is smart to be diversified when purchasing equities and call options, it is smart to be diversified when shorting and buying put options. In this article I will show you 5 ideas on how I plan on hedging my portfolio and why I believe it is a good idea.
Idea #1: Hedging the S&P 500
Most portfolios have exposure to the S&P 500, so it is worth spending some money on insurance against this index.
(click chart to enlarge)
As we can see from the S&P Index SPDR (SPY) chart above, we had a pretty ugly day on heavier than normal volume Wednesday. You can also see that the RSI or relative strength has been trading in overbought territory since January 3. Typically it is a good time to lighten up or purchase protection when trading in overbought levels like this. We sold off by close to 1% Wednesday and the RSI still is trading at the higher end of the range, 64.59. You can pull up a chart of the VIX or Volatility Index, which trades inversely to the S&P 500, and you will see the VIX was trading near oversold levels in that same time frame. The VIX also had a big 9% spike Wednesday regaining the 20 day moving average, the VIX is another great indicator to get an idea of when to hedge.
S&P Hedging Strategy:
Although volatility is cheap (yes even with the 9% spike Wednesday) I would purchase put spreads versus outright put options on the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY), but I would purchase more time versus if I were just buying puts I would likely choose to purchase less time. Purchasing more time requires me to be proactive as I might have to decide when to trade out of this strategy so the hedge actually works. I would purchase March 127 put options and sell (1 for 1) March 117 put options against them. This strategy would cost me roughly $210 per put spread and would protect me down to just above the 200 day moving average at 117. If the market corrects more significantly and the SPY is trading below 117 on March expiration this strategy would return $1,000 per put spread or a return of 476%. Of course us bulls out there don't want the maximum return from this spread, but it would certainly help pad the portfolio if the market did correct in such a manner.
Idea #2: Hedging the NASDAQ 100
Like the S&P 500, many of us have exposure to big tech names which fall into the NASDAQ 100. One way we can hedge many of our stocks in the NASDAQ is to purchase similar put spreads on the Powershares QQQ Trust (QQQQ).
(click chart to enlarge)
From the chart above, we can see many similar comparisons to that of the S&P SPDR chart. ETF was trading in overbought territory for days, heavier than normal volume to the downside. But the really bearish signal I see from Wednesday's price-action, and signals a potential key reversal, is that the QQQQ managed to open on the highs, which also happens to be higher than Tuesday's high as well as the 52 week high, but gave all of Tuesday's gains back closing below Tuesday's low and on heavier volume. This is called a bearish engulfing candle pattern and cannot be illustrated any better than this.
NASDAQ Hedging Strategy:
Again I would look at using the 20 and 200 day moving average to get an idea on where to purchase and sell put options. I would buy the March 55 put options and sell the March 50 put options. I could get this strategy for roughly $84 per put spread. If the NASDAQ corrected significantly and the QQQQ was below 50 on March options expiration this strategy would return $500 per spread or a return of 595%.
Next I will outline 3 specific sectors using the Sector SPDR ETFS. I have looked at many sectors and believe the three to follow have the greatest risk and could have the most significant correction if we get a pull back.
Idea #3: Hedging the Health Care Sector
This sector had some very ugly price action as well Wednesday. We can see a very similar bearish engulf candle pattern from the chart below of the Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV).
(click chart to enlarge)
We can see the ETF opened within pennies of its 52 week high before selling off throughout the day. This ETF also engulfed all of Tuesday's move on greater volume. Not looking too promising for the bulls out there.
Health Care Sector Hedging Strategy:
With this ETF I am going to stay shorter term and purchase at the money February 32 put options for $46 per contract. I am choosing to stay shorter term on this ETF because the volatility stands at a whopping 14.75% (sarcastic) for February, and because I am trading on this signal and because this is sector specific I wouldn't want to overpay for time value.
Idea #4 Hedging the Energy Sector
This sector is by far one of the best performing sectors since the most recent market bottom, which leads me to believe it may have the biggest correction if we get an overall market correction.
(click chart to enlarge)
As we can see from the Energy Select Sector ETF (XLE) above, it opened on the 52 week high and sunk like a stone all day engulfing Tuesday's entire move higher, all on greater volume. This again is very ugly price action and would signal me to sell energy stocks or purchase put protection. This is one of very few ETF's that traded above 70 on the RSI for more than 3 days.
Energy Sector Hedging Strategy:
I would also plan on purchasing shorter tem puts on this ETF, because this is sector specific and would think based on the ugly price action and recent overbought levels, it is due to correct sooner rather than later. I am structuring my bet on this ETF a bit differently than the last few. As you can see from the chart of the XLE above, the stock left a couple of gaps on the way up, and I believe those have a high probability of being filled if we get a pull back. I would purchase puts below the 20 day moving average at minor support near 68, and I would sell puts near 60. Therefore I would put on a February 68/60 put spread. This would cost me roughly $75 per spread. This strategy is a bit more bearish and factors in quite a significant correction, but selling the 60 puts versus the 61 or 62 puts didn't make too much of a difference compared to potential returns, especially because that lower gap which would need to be filled around 59.94. If this ETF sold off and closed at or below 60 on February options expiration this strategy would return $800 per spread or 1,067%.
Idea #5 Hedging the Materials Sector:
This sector was perhaps the ugliest of the day Wednesday. Many of the largest holdings in the Materials Select Sector ETF (XLB) such as Monsanto (MON) and Freeport-Mcmoran (FCX) have had unbelievable runs lately and need to take a breather.
(click chart to enlarge)
This ETF had an extremely ugly potential reversal day Wednesday . The ETF opened near the high and 52 week high and sold off the entire day on very large volume engulfing all of the previous two days moves higher. This stock also fell below the 20 day moving average for the first time since mid November. This again is a potential key reversal day to watch and would be a signal to sell material stocks or put on some hedges.
Material Sector Hedging Strategy:
As we can from the minor pull back in mid November the ETF broke below the 20 day but then bounced off of the 50 day moving average and continued a nice uptrend. You will also see Fibonacci retracement levels drawn on the chart which are also key levels to watch. The Fibonacci levels come in very close to the moving averages on the chart, but I will use both to structure my put spread. Again I would choose the February contracts to keep this hedge shorter term. I would purchase my first put near the 50 day moving average at 37 and sell put options near 34. If it broke below the 50% retracement, I would want to roll out into the next month and purchase another put spread (perhaps the 34/30) as the stock would likely head lower. This strategy would cost roughly $45 per spread and would return $300 per spread or 667% if this ETF closed at or below 34 per share on February options expiration.
The ideas outlined above are bearish strategies and should not be considered if you think the ETF will continue higher or have a very minor correction in the near future. However if you feel the ETF could correct in the near future, these strategies could help protect your portfolio. To get a better understanding of stock options and different option strategies please check out my Simplified Stock Option Trading E-Books. These are just examples and are not recommendations to buy or sell any security; if you're more bullish/bearish, you’ll want to adjust the strike price and expiration accordingly.
The reason option volumes have surged in the last five years is because they are a great way to hedge your portfolio as well as create income off of your shares (see chart here). Keep in mind when using this strategy it is essential that broker commissions are low enough to profit from the position.
I currently do not own any strategies mentioned above, but may open them in the next few days. Sphere: Related Content
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
Options Market Findings: January 18, 2011
Banking on Citigroup to Outperform: A Bullish Option Strategy
To continue reading this, view the full article on Seeking Alpha HERE. Sphere: Related Content
Monday, January 17, 2011
3 Dow Stocks to Buy-Write Now
The first stock I find attractive from the Dow Jones Industrial average is Boeing (BA). I feel this stock is undervalued based on the future of the company and the dividend they pay. The last dividend of 42 cents was paid on November 3, 2010, so it should yield another two dividend payments by May options expiration - therefore I would likely look to write shares of Boeing out no later than May expiration. I could write the May 75 calls against shares of Boeing for about $2.00 per share bringing my cost down about 2.67% to $68 per share...
Thursday, January 13, 2011
Corning a Buy on Apple Verizon Marriage
I am getting long Corning (GLW) on the back of this deal. I believe demand for the Apple (AAPL) iPhone will pass even the most bullish estimates once it's selling on Verizon (VZ). Both Verizon and Apple have rallied greatly as well as Qualcomm (QCOM) in anticipation for this announcement, as this was a poorly kept secret.
This deal is also good for glass maker Corning Incorporated (GLW) which has been trapped in a tight range between 15-19 the last year. It looks as if the stock is finally trying to break out. I am long January 20 calls, as well as February 22 calls but I am looking longer term. I believe May 22/25 call spreads look very attractive at this point and plan on purchasing some for my portfolio on any weakness. For more information in how to trade these strategies check out my options ebook.
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